It is often said, quite rightly, that the economy is heavily influenced by psychology.
Positive psychology, however, is very different from ungrounded over-optimism. Even more, it does not mean cultivating illusions and artificial realities. Positive psychology is directly linked to a proper reading of reality.
It is to this reality that the IMF and a distinguished former official of the Fund are trying to acclimate the government.
The Fund projects a two percent growth rate for 2018, compared to an initial projection of 2.6 percent, and a 1.8 percent growth rate for 2019.
It is saying, in other words, that our country will remain, in terms of its growth rate, at the tail end among European economies, and that the distance that separates it from other economies will grow.
They will grow as we gasp.
A former government minister described in words what the numbers say, speaking of the “brutal” pension cuts coming at the beginning of next year and that the difficulties that taxpayers will face over the next years, due to the commitment to maintain a 3.5 percent primary surplus. That is, as he said, “the path after the memorandum”.
Politically, the former minister’s statements can be read as being in direct contradiction with the government’s narrative.
In essence, it represents a rough landing into reality, both for himself and for a government that insists on investing in the politics of escaping reality, at the expense of everyone’s psychology.